Global InfoAnalytics predicts that John Dramani Mahama, the National Democratic Congress (NDC) nominee for president, will win.
The research agency made its most recent projection just 8 days before the December 7 national elections.
According to the survey, the former president will receive 52.2% of the vote, followed by the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) nominee and Vice President, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia, who is predicted to receive 41.4%.
Alan Kwadwo Kyerematen is expected to receive 2.5% of the votes, Nana Kwame Bediako 3.0%, and other candidates 0.9%. This research has a margin of error of ±1.8%, with a projected voter turnout of 77.6%.
In terms of regional dynamics, Mr Mahama is expected to win in ten regions, including Greater Accra, Central Volta, and Northern.
Dr Bawumia is projected to win victory in the Ashanti, Eastern, Ahafo, and North East regions, among others.
The NDC is also expected to take the lead in the parliamentary elections, with an estimated 150 seats. The NPP is predicted to win 99 seats, with one seat going to an independent candidate. However, 29 constituencies are still too close to call.
This estimate highlights a shift in parliamentary representation, with the NDC potentially solidifying wins in stronghold areas while challenging NPP-dominated districts.
The research examines key aspects that influence voter preferences, such as economic concerns, job development, and public service delivery.
It also emphasized the importance of regional strongholds in deciding overall election results.
The projections are based on a base-case scenario, but they also contain worst- and best-case scenarios in which Mahama’s support might vary from 50.4% to 54.1%, depending on final voter turnout and undecided voters.
This survey came shortly after a comparable study issued on Thursday, November 21, 2024, by Professor Smart Sarpong, an Associate Professor of Statistics at Kumasi Technical University, showed Dr Bawumia leading with 49.1% of popular support in the election.
Dr. Bawumia’s closest rival, John Dramani Mahama of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), received 45.8% of the vote in that survey, while Nana Kwame Bediako of the New Force is expected to receive slightly more than 2%, and Alan John Kwadwo Kyerematen of the Movement for Change is expected to finish fourth, with only 1.2%.
