Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia is the favorite among delegates, so he is expected to win the New Patriotic Party’s presidential primary and run for president in 2024.
This information came from a survey that Outcomes International Ghana and the UK-based Centre for Sustainable African Development Initiatives (C-SADI) did with conference attendees.
Between November 15 and December 15, 2022, the two companies worked together to conduct the study.
Nearly 90% of the delegates, according to the study, do not consider a candidate’s religious affiliation when choosing a flagbearer. A target demographic of about 197,000 NPP polling station executives (PSEs) was used in the survey, which was conducted in all 16 regions of the nation.
Below is the complete research
Ghana is a newly democratic nation that is held up as a model for other nations in sub-Saharan Africa. The New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the National Democratic Congress (NDC) are the two most important political parties in the nation.
Despite the present economic difficulties brought on by the COVID-19 epidemic and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the ruling NPP will continue to be a significant political force in the future general elections in 2024.
One important political issue that has recently dominated Ghana’s media landscape is who will lead the NPP into the next general election.
Party delegates, which include polling station executives, electoral area coordinators, constituency executives, regional executives, national executives, and members of parliament, are very important in choosing the next presidential candidate for the NPP.
The individual who is chosen as a presidential candidate is important because, if elected, they would play a significant role in deciding the country’s course and development goals. There are currently a lot of viable possibilities.
They are Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, the current vice president; Hon. Kennedy Agyapong, a businessman and member of parliament, Hon. Boakye Agyarko, a former energy minister, and Mr. Kwabena Agyapong, a former general secretary of the NPP. Hon. Alan Kyerematen, a former minister of trade.
Dr. Kofi Konadu Apraku, a former state minister and member of parliament, Mr. Kwadwo Nsafoah Poku, an energy specialist, Hon. Joe Gartey, a member of parliament and a former state minister; and Hon. Francis Addai Nimo, a former member of parliament, are additional candidates.
Outcomes International Ghana and the Centre for Sustainable African Development Initiatives (C-SADI) in the UK collaborated to conduct a study to ascertain who is most likely to win the NPP presidential candidate election given the significance of the contest.
Other socio-demographic parameters that might affect the choice of the NPP’s presidential candidate were also examined in the study.
For instance, how race, region, and religion impact candidates’ chances of being successful as well as the criteria used by delegates to judge a candidate’s fitness.
Using an estimated 197,000 NPP polling station executives (PSEs) as the target demographic, the survey was conducted in all 16 regions of the nation. PSEs make up the majority of the delegates that will vote to pick the NPP presidential candidate, making them the most significant constituency.
The people who would take part were chosen using a method called probability proportional to size sampling (PPS) with implicit stratification.
The subsamples were taken in three stages: the primary sampling units (PSUs) were the constituencies in a region, the second-stage sampling units were the electoral areas of the chosen constituencies, and the third-stage sampling units were the NPP Polling Station Executives.
Between November 15 and December 15, 2022, computer-assisted personal interviewing (CAPI) technology was mostly used to collect data. A sample size of 6,000 PSEs was employed, with a 95% confidence level and a 2% margin of error.
However, 5641 PSEs from all 96 constituencies were successfully interviewed (response rate: 94%). With 1142 PSEs, the Greater Accra area had the most PSEs questioned, followed by the Ashanti region with 869 PSEs, or 20.2% and 15.4%, respectively. 54% (n = 3056 PSEs) of the PSEs who took part in the poll were Akan, while 46% (n = 2585 PSEs) were not. Seventy-eight percent of PSEs identified as Christians, while twenty-six percent identified as Muslims.
Figure 1 shows the results of the poll that asked PSEs who they would vote for in the elections today.
Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia is the PSEs’ top choice for the role of NPP flagbearer, leading in all 16 areas, as seen in Figure 1. The two contestants who are most likely to succeed Dr. Bawumia are Mr. Alan Kyeremanten and Mr. Kennedy Agyapong.
Although 12.3% of PSEs claimed they had not yet made up their minds about who to vote for, this did not materially affect the outcome.
The candidate’s racial, regional, or religious background did not seem to significantly influence PSEs’ voting choices. In fact, 9 out of 10 (86.4%) PSEs said they don’t consider a candidate’s religion when choosing a flagbearer (see figure 2).
The primary factors used by PSEs to determine whether a candidate is qualified to serve as flagbearer are the candidate’s vision for the party (58.89% chose this as their first or second choice), their vision for the nation (40.49% chose this as their first or second choice), and their loyalty to the party (32.51% chose this as their first or second choice).
Other important criteria for judging candidates included their perceived expertise, modesty, marketability, dedication, personalities, and contributions to the party.
Outcomes International Ghana and the UK-based Centre for Sustainable African Development Initiatives (C-SADI) jointly released this study. Contact C-SADI or Outcomes International Ghana for further information.