Voting this year has been significant in most countries across the globe.
50 nations are anticipated to have elections this year. Over two billion people will cast ballots in these elections globally, according to the US Policy Institute Center for American Progress.
17 African nations, including Ghana, Mali, Tunisia, and South Africa, will also be electing new leaders. Since the Fourth Republic began, Ghana has been praised for its peaceful and democratic electoral history, which is marked by smooth handovers of power. Because of its history and dedication to multi-party representation in elections, Ghana has solidified its position as a democratic leader on the African continent.
In Ghana, the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) is a prominent center-right and liberal-conservative political force. Since Ghana’s 1992 democratic transition, the NPP has been one of the two major political parties in the nation, with the center-left National Democratic Congress (NDC) serving as its primary opponent. Both parties have been actively running the nation for 16 years each, and their respective records frequently cause a significant rift in public opinion.
Our nation has experienced power shifts, which has resulted in instances where party members have accused one another of failing to perform better than the other. This insight highlights the intricate relationships and viewpoints that exist inside Ghana’s political system.
This blog seeks to inform voters, political parties, interested parties, and all parties about the three blocs that will influence this year’s election, either favorably or unfavorably (depending on your stance).
Presidential Candidate in Both Parties
For this year’s election, the NPP has selected Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, its vice president, as its presidential candidate. Dr. Mathew Opoku Prempeh has since been named the party’s running partner for Dr. Bawumia.
The NDC’s presidential candidate on the opposition side turned out to be former president John Dramani Mahama. Then, for the 2024 presidential race, he kept Professor Naana Jane Opoku-Agyemang as his running mate.
This followed a meeting of the National Executive Committee that took place in Accra on Thursday, March 4, 2024. As previous ministers of education, both running mates will provide their knowledge to help their party’s ticket. Are their presidential candidates influenced in any way by these running mates?
Comprehending the Voting Environment
Based on the ideas and messaging that political parties promote during their campaigns and manifesto readings, voters typically choose one over the other.
The NPP’s 2016 manifesto addressed a number of important topics, including the economy, commerce and industry, education (including the Free Senior High School (Free SHS) Policy), health (including the national health insurance program), and infrastructure in all areas.
Additionally, the NDC centered its message on prioritizing people, creating a robust and resilient economy, supplying dependable infrastructure, and enhancing governance accountability.
After defeating incumbent NDC president John Dramani Mahama with 53.9% of the vote in the first round, the opposition NPP, led by Nana Akufo-Addo, ultimately won the 2016 presidential election. Just 44.7% of the valid votes went to Mahama.
According to the Ghanaian Electoral Commission, the NDC received 106 seats in Parliament, while the NPP secured a majority of 169 MPs.
It is crucial to remember that these political parties have their “world bank,” or bases. The Ashanti Region is the NPP’s stronghold, whilst the Volta Region is the NDC’s.
The Volta Region gave the NDC its greatest proportion of votes (84.8%) in 2020, while the Ashanti Region gave the NPP its highest percentage of votes (71%).
These two previously mentioned areas have served as the two parties’ political strongholds over time. Additionally, the NDC received roughly 6.17 million votes in the 2020 elections, compared to roughly 6.79 million for the NPP.
It is difficult to forecast who will win this year’s election because of these fascinating data.
The article’s next section delves into three intriguing groups of people in the nation who could influence the outcome of the election while appearing to be underdogs. Watch them!
Three Important Groups That Will Affect the December Polls
Ghana is currently one of the most expensive countries in Africa. People have complained that the economy is negatively impacting every aspect of their lives.
Many citizens are looking for answers to several issues, including the widespread problem of youth unemployment, the sharp decline of the cedi in value relative to the US dollar, and the growing government debt; the sale of state-owned properties, which has caused controversy; widespread corruption and looting; and the unequal distribution of wealth.
Furthermore, the urgent need for remedies is exacerbated by the degradation of our water bodies brought on by galamsey activities.
However, who will be voting, who will be watching, and what will people be voting against? Three blocks are shown below.
The Floating Voters are the first group of people. Lazarsfeld, Berelson, and Gaudet (1944) noted that Erie County voters who “wavered” during the 1940 campaign were particularly ignorant of politics, which led to the development of the floating voter hypothesis.
The floating voter hypothesis has an impact on intra-election change in its first version. They concluded that the people who helped bring about the intersection change in the two-party presidential vote were also the least informed voters, based on their observation that the people most vulnerable to persuasion during election campaigns were also the least informed voters.
These people either don’t regularly support the same political party or haven’t determined how they want to vote in an election yet. Because they decide to vote at the last minute, these individuals are unpredictable.
They are comparable to the “laggards” that are shown in advertisements. Political parties must take note of these people and convince them to back their candidates because they lack strong party memberships.
These indecisive voters have had a big impact on Ghana’s presidential election results in the past. For instance, the runoff between John Agyekum Kufour and Prof. John Evans Atta Mills in the 2000 elections saw a significant 14.8% of floating votes to Kufuor’s total votes.
In a similar vein, Prof. Mills defeated Akufo-Addo in the 2008 election runoff with fewer than 40,000 floating votes.
The New Voters are the next group we discuss. They will be casting their first ballot, as their name implies. The majority of “Gen Zs” fall into the category of new voters.
According to census statistics from 2021, the age distribution of Ghana’s 31 million inhabitants shows that young people make up the majority of the population, with 35% of them being children (0–14 years old), 38% being young people (15–35 years old), and 4% being elderly (65+).
From May 7 to May 29, 2024, the Ghanaian Electoral Commission conducted a restricted voter registration drive.
According to graphic.com.gh, the EC registered 778,447 voters after the 23-day exercise, 408,332 of whom were female (representing 52.45 percent) and 370,115 of whom were male (representing 47.55 percent).
These figures are also sufficient to surprise everyone by determining who will be in power for the next four years. Based on their experiences during the past four years, these new voters will cast their ballots.
57% of young people between the ages of 18 and 34 said they were “extremely likely” to vote in 2024, and another 15% said they were “fairly likely” to do so, according to a recent poll by the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement.
Young people are becoming more involved in politics, as evidenced by their growing presence on social media, particularly X (previously Twitter), where last year’s “Fix the Country” online protest turned into one of the biggest public demonstrations Ghana has ever seen.
Young individuals between the ages of 18 and 34, along with the youngest Millennials, have the potential to play a significant role in the upcoming presidential election. First-time voters, who make up a sizable fraction of the electorate, have the potential to significantly influence how the next election turns out.
Their individual experiences—such as the hardships of unemployment, the repercussions of the cedi’s depreciation, the difficulties in the educational system, and the significant consequences of the skyrocketing cost of living—will motivate these voters. Their vote decisions will probably be substantially influenced by these urgent problems.
The Party Faithful should be the final group taken into account. According to the Cambridge Dictionary, these people have been devoted members or supporters of a certain party for a long period. Based on variables including tribe, region, history, and allegiance, they are represented in different locations and comprise the majority of the voting population. Although it is less important in more diversified settings, ethnicity is ubiquitous in all societies and is therefore essential to all political marketing strategies.
This group seems to be steadfast in their party devotion, frequently opting to stick with their party regardless of a candidate’s real performance.
It has been seen that these people continue to exhibit steadfast support even when their party is associated with a relatively unknown candidate.
Even when their preferred party or candidate is not doing well, their commitment to the party or individual appears to take precedence over other factors.
Gaining support from this demographic can be especially difficult if you are a opposition party member.
The 2024 election anticipates a fascinating and uncertain period in our country’s political history. Each of the two main political parties is certain that it can win. While the other party focuses on the administration’s extensive expertise and prior achievements in governance to influence voters, one party strategically uses the story of the present administration’s accomplishments to mobilize support.
The intriguing twist is that all parties involved, including stakeholders, the voter, and others, have the ability to influence how these elections turn out. As last-minute decision-makers, the undecided voters—also known as floating voters—will have a big say. Furthermore, the emergence of new voters, especially “Gen Zs,” will exert their impact, and ardent party supporters will keep supporting their traditional favorites. The 2024 elections are expected to be an engaging and captivating story that requires our full attention because of these dynamic and complex factors at play.
The crucial and imminent question is which candidate will ultimately gain the public’s confidence and support to lead the country, regardless of the campaign strategies. Only on December 7th will we know.
