After last month’s legislative elections, the opposition in Poland has reached a coalition agreement that would allow them to create a new government.
Leaders of the moderate Civic Coalition under Donald Tusk signed the agreement in parliament along with two other groups.
Poland’s Tusk-led pro-EU opposition signs deal and waits to govern
In October’s poll, the pro-EU opposition secured a strong majority, but they will have to wait to form a government.
The first shot at creating a coalition has been given to the ruling right-wing nationalist Law and Justice Party (PiS).
As PiS emerged as the largest party on October 15, President Andrzej Duda assigned the assignment to Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki earlier this week.
Given that all other parties have ruled out cooperating with Law and Justice, Mr. Morawiecki has very little chance of succeeding.
PiS gained 194 of the 460 seats in the Sejm, Poland’s parliament, but with 248 MPs, the opposition obtained a majority.
Ahead of the first sitting of parliament on November 13, the Civic Coalition (KO) inked an agreement in the Sejm on Friday with the New Left and the agrarian conservative Third Way party.
They declared that they would put forth Donald Tusk, the leader of KO and the former head of the European Council, as a potential prime minister.
Mr. Tusk told reporters, “We are prepared to assume responsibility for Poland in the upcoming years.”
The Polish PM forms the government for the first time.
Broad policy objectives were outlined in the coalition agreement, with security being given top priority in light of Russia’s war in Ukraine. One such objective was to boost Poland’s standing in the EU and NATO.
Along with removing political pressure from Poland’s courts, they also promised to depoliticize state media, the military, and special services, separate church and state, and reverse a 2020 decision that virtually prohibited abortion.
“We discovered a shared element for the proposals we wish to execute,” stated Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz, the chairman of the centre-right Polish Peasants’ Party (PSL).
A portion of the pro-Tusk bloc has said that it will not formally participate in the coalition, despite the seeming unity. The Together party, which participated in the election as a part of the New Left, claimed it was unable to enlist because the agreement did not go far enough in liberalising abortion and other provisions, including more expenditure on healthcare and education.
In the event that the party did not win nine seats, the Tusk alliance would still hold a majority with 239 seats.
In order to demonstrate to President Duda that they are prepared to rule and have the necessary numbers, the opposition in Poland sought to ink a coalition agreement prior to the opening session of the new parliament on November 13.
They promptly brought up the fact that the president, an ally of the People’s Party, was well short of the 231 seats required by the right-wing nationalists.
However, as Mr. Duda was a member of the PiS in the past, it is in the PiS’s best interest to drag out the proceedings as long as possible in the hopes that fractures will show in the opposition.
In addition to the house speakers and MPs taking office on Monday, Mr. Morawiecki and his administration will step down and be replaced by a caretaker government until a new one is created.
However, it can take up to a month before that occurs.
The president has 14 days starting on Monday to name a prime minister, and he has already announced his preference. After that, Mr. Morawiecki has an extra 14 days to select a group of ministers, write a policy address, and secure a vote of confidence.
In the event that he is not successful, parliament itself may then name a prime minister. Considering the composition of the chamber, this would probably mean Donald Tusk being named prime minister of a coalition government and receiving a vote of confidence. According to Mr. Duda, if Mr. Tusk is chosen by MPs, he will be appointed.
This month might see the formation of a new government if Mr. Morawiecki gives up on trying to establish one because of a lack of support. But not if he makes political points with his speech.
Whatever the outcome, there would be formidable obstacles for a Tusk government composed of rural conservatives and leftists.
They all support the EU and the restoration of the judiciary’s and the public media’s independence, but they disagree on important topics like the extent to which Poland should loosen its strict abortion laws.