Research company IC Securities changed its initial projection of GH¢13.2/US$ for the end of 2024 US dollar to Ghana cedi exchange to GH¢15.91/US$.
This is predicated on the current macroeconomic climate, it stated.
As we anticipated significant selling pressure on the local currency, we deferred our propensity to enhance our projection for the US dollar Ghana cedi FX [foreign exchange] rate following the unexpected fall in the policy rate [by the Bank of Ghana] in January 2024.
Based on anticipated program-related inflows and the final tranche of the syndicated loan for cocoa for the 23/24 season, we decided to postpone revising our forecast until mid-year.
“However, these inflows did not fully materialize while GHS [Ghana cedi] supply overwhelmed the market. The subsequent adjustment to banks’ CRR [Cash Reserve Requirement] exerted a limited squeeze on local currency liquidity as banks mostly converted their maturing BoG securities into the CRR positions.
Additionally, IC Securities explained that the seeming fiscal expansion via the clearance of contractor arrears continued to propagate GHS [cedi] liquidity in the forex market, resulting in pressure on the local currency.”.
It added that the expected inflow of approximately $2.3 billion in the remainder of 2024 appears largely attainable, as the indicative timelines add some credibility to its expectations.
It continued that the Cedi would benefit more from the signaling effect of the World Bank inflows and less from actual foreign exchange sales as the Bank of Ghana implements constrained interventions amidst reserve build-up.
“While these inflows could trigger a short-term retracement, we foresee continued hedging by domestic investors as we approach the December elections, which will potentially offset any inflows-induced appreciation. Consequently, we raise our forecast for the end-2024 US$/GHS rate to GH¢15.91/US$.
Presently, the local currency is going for about GH¢15.00 to the dollar at the forex bureaus.
Source: citinewsroom.com